Opinions IN SPACE!

A very persistent reader emailed to ask my opinion as science fiction writer on 1.) the US government’s report on UFO sightings, and 2.) billionaires like Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos launching themselves into space.

Granted, I myself would not come to a science fiction writer for a reliable opinion on anything. 🙂

But here’s what I think.

UFO SIGHTINGS: The US government recently released a report on UAF (unidentified aerial phenomenon) that basically said the US military has been seeing weird flying things it can’t explain. People have proposed explanations ranging from space aliens, to secret Russian aircraft, to angels as they are described in the Book of Ezekiel.

While I concede it is possible that the UAF are space aliens or angels heralding the Second Coming (especially after the last two years), I think it is more likely that they are a natural phenomenon we currently don’t yet have the instruments or the mental models to understand. A good example of this process is the “canals” of Mars. Early astronomers observed what they believed to be canals on Mars’ surface. Later generations of astronomers had better instruments, which later revealed that the canals were in fact optical illusions caused by the weaker telescopes of the 19th century. Or the aurora borealis – in ancient times, people had dozens of potential religious and natural explanations for them, but thanks to modern tools, we know that they’re caused by charged particles hitting Earth’s magnetosphere. Another example would be the Ptolemaic view of the universe, which states at the Earth is the fixed center of the cosmos and everything revolves around it. That explanation makes perfect sense using information gathered by the naked eye, but the people of the ancient world didn’t have the tools or the mental models to get closer to the truth.

I suspect something similar is underway with the UAF. Probably they are a natural phenomenon that has always existed, but it is only within the last 80 years that humans have had aircraft that can fly high enough to see them. Perhaps in another hundred years people will have instruments and theories that can explain UAF, and they will be no more mysterious than the aurora borealis.

BILLIONAIRE SPACEFLIGHT: I don’t have a strong opinion one way or another, but I don’t really have a problem with this. Of course, there’s some criticism that the money spent on private spaceflight could instead be used for more humanitarian projects, and there’s some truth in that. On the other hand, the cynical part of me points out that while humanitarian projects are a worthy goal, “this money should have been spent on the poor!” has nonetheless been a rallying cry for con men and thieves since the time of Judas Iscariot. And I admit that the sneering “tall poppy” reaction to what is a fairly remarkable achievement – the increasing privatization of spaceflight – makes me more sympathetic to it than I would be otherwise.

That said, I think the biggest long-term improvements in the human condition have come from better tools and better technology. Even a very poor person in many countries today has access to luxuries and goods that would have seemed unimaginable to a Roman emperor or a Bronze Age god-king.  That didn’t happen because we’re smarter or more moral than our ancestors, but because we have better technology, tools, and systems. I don’t think the value in space exploration comes from seeking out aliens or trying to build space colonies or any sort of Star Trek stuff, but in finding a way to tap the vast resources available in the solar system – practically limitless fresh water, minerals, and potential power generation. Think of all the problems that could be solved with an endless supply of fresh water or solar electricity, or if mining was done on asteroids instead of the Earth. Bezos also pointed out that it could be possible to move polluting industries into space, thereby eliminating a lot of environmental damage to Earth.

All this would, of course, only be possible with the democratization of space technology. Right now only powerful governments and billionaires can go to space. But that used to be true of air travel as well. Computers used to cost millions of dollars and have their own buildings, and recently I saw a teenager gazing slackly at a handheld computer (ie, a smartphone) as he went past on his skateboard. If he faceplanted and broke his phone, he could get another without much trouble, and his new phone would be infinitely more powerful than the old mainframe computers with their own buildings.

Overall, I think private spaceflight is a worthwhile experiment, though probably those of us reading this won’t see the benefits in our lifetimes. Obviously, this is all the first step in a long process, but I doubt the British scientists & technicians working on the Ultra project in World War II had any idea that their work was one of the first steps in the process that would lead to the Internet and the computer/tablet you are now reading this on.

So that’s what I think. However, given the historical reliability of science fiction writers’ predictions, it’s entirely possible that I am wrong. 🙂

-JM